Sunday, September 11, 2022

How fake news spreads, etc.

Fake news:


I spent 10 years as a journalist in the US and China and wrote hundreds of stories in major websites and magazines. People wonder how fake information spreads. Here's how it really happens.

I never wrote anything I knew was false. Very few journalists do. But I'm familiar with the incentives and dynamics that allow falsehoods to propagate. They exploit weaknesses in human thinking that are as old as our species.

Allow me to share a story that showcases the conditions in which fake narratives successfully evolve and propagate.

1. The narrative is irresistible. If people want a falsehood to be true, it doesn’t matter whether or not it is true.

Nearly 200 years ago, the New York Sun announced breaking news: life was discovered on the moon. People had been speculating about this for years. The world exploded. Almost overnight, the Sun became the most-read paper in the world.



2. It comes from authority. Those who are believed to have expertise and access to unique sources of information are often invoked when spreading falsehood.

The 1835 "Great Moon" hoax credited the discovery of lunar life to famed astronomer Sir John Herschel, son of William Herschel, discoverer of infrared radiation and the planet Uranus. It was cited to a scientific journal in Edinburgh. (All false.)



3. It is detailed & voluminous. People assume that falsehoods don’t travel in packs. One lie is easy to spot. But a whole swarm of highly detailed lies overwhelms skepticism. The truth is often patchy and uncertain.

In one week, the New York Sun ran six articles on the moon-life discovery. It totaled over 20,000 words and included illustrations and editorial notes. Today it would be called a "deep dive" or a "multimedia longform investigation." The kind of work that wins prizes.


4. The narrative is difficult or impossible to verify yourself. Falsehoods thrive when readers cannot test facts against their experience or senses.

The Great Moon hoax attributed its facts to a telescope with a 7-ton lens located in the Cape of Good Hope. No reader could look at the Moon and expect to see the Biped Beaver and Vespertilio-Homo (flying man bat) with the naked eye.


5. The economic incentives favor sensationalism. If a writer needs viral stories to make money, expect more viral stories. If reality doesn't produce enough, invent some.

The Great Moon Hoax was schemed up by Richard Adams Locke, a descendent of philosopher John Locke. His newspaper was a struggling startup with 8,000 readers. During the hoax, it became the top-selling paper in the world, with nearly 20,000 readers. Ad space sold out.



6. The response is explosive. Once falsehood goes viral, the truth of the original report often ceases to matter. What matters is the buzz & conversation around it. People no longer care whether it's true.

The Great Moon Hoax reports went global. Newspapers in Italy, France, and England ran their own versions of the news. Suddenly there were new images of the moon creatures. New descriptions of them. Moon life was great for business.


Prestige publications gave their approval. The New York Times called the moon life discoveries "probable and possible." The New Yorker hailed "a new era in science." Edgar Allen Poe wrote that the only people who doubted were "the ignorant": those who knew nothing about science.

7. Don't expect a correction. Locke, the hoaxer, became famous. The New York Sun blamed Europeans for the mistake and sold 60,000 more copies. It never admitted the hoax. In 2010, the 175th anniversary, the Sun joked it was still exploring the existence of lunar man-bats.

Falsehoods that travel come from a variety of sources. Rarely does a mastermind like Locke commit conscious fraud. There doesn't have to be. Our selective perception does the work for us.

calls it a reality filter. Walter Lippmann says this:



Thanks, man. There’s a lot more of it. The amazing thing is that people regarded those as scientific images. Makes you wonder about our credulity now…

Replying to and
“Every statue and street building has been renamed, every date has been altered. And the process is continuing day by day and minute by minute. History has stopped. Nothing exists except an endless present in which the Party is always right.” - George Orwell, 1984



Replying to and
Tagging The psychology behind this is rather simple, ranging (in my humble opinion) only between the Spiral of Silence on the one end and common greed at the other. It really is that simple. Unions work within this specific range (again, my opinion).











 





Thursday, September 8, 2022

Logic

 


from FB


I have been skeptical that the problem of consciousness can be resolved scientifically. In an insightful series of thought experiments modeled with algorithms, Jan Scheffel, professor of theoretical plasma physics, demonstrates that consciousness is not reductive (in other words, cannot be reduced to a physical base) and is ontologically emergent from a physical base. That means that the properties of consciousness that we experience are distinct from, but emerge as more than the sum of the parts from, our brains. Neural complexity gives rise to abilities and properties that cannot be fully predicted from or deduced from that neural base. One of those abilities is the ability to choose differently given identical states of the neural network. In other words, this emergent consciousness is the basis of free will in the strong sense of ability to choose otherwise than we in fact choose.


OK, just thinking is to be getting this joke: Descartes takes his date, Jeanne, to a restaurant for her birthday. The sommelier hands them the wine list, and Jeanne asks to order the most expensive Burgundy on the list. “I think not!” exclaims an indignant Descartes, and he disappears.


I start all of my logic classes with this story: The old chief died before he could instruct the new chief on how to prepare for the winter. Concerned about his inexperience, the new chief realizes that he does not know how to instruct his people to prepare for winter. So he calls the weather bureau and asks: "is it going to be a cold winter?" The Bureau agent says, "we don't have much data, but it could be cold." Just to be prepared, the new chief tells his people to gather some wood. A little later, still worried that they may not be prepared, he calls the bureau again and asks: "Do you have any more information?" The bureau agent says, "yes, we have some more data. It will be colder than first projected." So the new chief tells his people to gather lots of wood. As the winter approaches, he grows concerned again and calls the bureau and asks" "do you have any more data on whether it will it be cold this winter?" The bureau agent responds: "Yes, it looks like it will be a very cold winter." So the the new chief tells his people to gather all of the wood that they can. As the first snow storm hits, he calls the bureau again for an update. "What do the data suggest now? he asks." The bureau agent responds: "It looks like it will be the coldest winter on record ever!" The chief asks, "how do you know that??" The bureau agent responds, "well, we are short on actual data, but the Native Americans are gathering wood like crazy!"

banana stalks to blue jeans in China

 Video here: https://x.com/i/status/2029471117283590406